In the United States, key economic indicators continue to exceed expectations. There is, however, room for improvement and this enviable performance offers no guarantee to those who would be tempted to stop President Donald Trump from getting a second term.
President Trump and his Republican supporters are counting on the strong performance of the US economy to fly to victory in November 2020. If growth continues to grow at this pace, it will be hard to ignore the president’s effort to the economy. The problem for Donald Trump is however in two forms. First, voters have remarkably short economic memory. If the economy stagnates or recedes in 2020, the president can trumpet its performance from 2017 to 2019 as an achievement which is unlikely to work.
Today, We take a look at key factors that have boosted the US Economy
Increase Employment Rate
The US economy is doing well. Months back, employment figures for April were released and they exceeded expectations. The US economy created 263,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate fell by two-tenths of a point to 3.6%, the best rate since 1969. These two figures represent the continuation of a relatively stable trend since the end of job losses resulting from the Great Recession of 2008-2009.
Since 2010, the US economy has had a positive monthly employment balance, with a monthly average of 201,000 jobs added, and the average is almost exactly at the same level (200,000 per month) since the inauguration of President Trump.
GDP growth in the first quarter of 2019 also exceeded expectations, at 3.2% on an annual basis. The stock market is also showing signs of strength, while the Dow Jones index has caught up almost all the losses incurred at the end of 2018 to return close to its record level.
A number of economic factors explain this good recent performance, including the strength of the global economy that has supported US exports at a high level despite the surge in protectionism in the United States and elsewhere. US consumer confidence, which had softened somewhat at the end of 2018, came back into force in 2019, which encourages growth.
Best Growth Recorded In Decades
The first and the main source of concern is that the United States is in its ninth consecutive year of economic growth, one of the longest growing cycles in history. The last performance of this dates back 1992-2000; it led to a brief recession in 2001, following the collapse of the Internet bubble.
However, far from weakening, US growth in recent months has actually accelerated, exceeding 3% annual rate in the 2nd and 3rd quarter.
The concern is from most quarters is that this growth is done on a full-employment economy (3.7% unemployment) and does not appear sustainable in the long term. Unfortunately, elsewhere in the world, the economic performances are decreasing which may affect the US economy in the coming years.
The policies of the Trump administration have benefited the economy and even if the president acts more like a businessman than a politician, the economy is one that has no doubt thrive.